Based on a quick partial survey of county registrar of voters, it appears that there are over 900,000 ballots left to count in California’s June 8th primary.
Rose Institute calls and emails received responses from the following counties:
- Orange County: 182,061 ballots remain to be counted (as of 6/9/2010, 4:15 pm)
- San Diego County: 160,000 ballots remain to be counted (6/9/2010, 3:45 pm)
- Los Angeles County: 149,174 remain (6/9/2010, 9:00 am)
- Riverside County: 100,000 remain (6/9/2010, 3:45 pm)
- Santa Clara County: 93,515 remain (6/9/2010, 10:00 am)
- San Bernardino County: 53,500 remain (6/9/2010, 3:45 pm)
- San Francisco County: 45,000 remain (6/9/2010, 11:00 am)
- Yolo County: 5,625 remain (6/9/2010, 10:30 am)
- Tuolumne County: 2,700 remain (6/9/2010, 8:00 am)
- Lassen County: 1,402 remain (6/8/2010, 11:30 pm)
- Colusa County: 400 remain (6/9/2010, 3:00 pm)
Among those eleven counties, there are about 793,000 ballots left to count. Using a very rough guess at the remaining counties, we estimate there are between 900,000 and 1.2 million ballots left to count statewide.
(A special thanks to those counties that promptly responded to our email, and to those counties that post their uncounted ballot counts on their web pages!)
This means Proposition 16 and 17 have almost certainly been defeated. Even at the high end of 1.2 million remaining ballots, Proposition 17 needs to win 57 percent of the remaining ballots to come back to victory, and Proposition 16 needs to win 58 percent. Given their narrow margin among early absentee ballots, it is unlikely either measure will achieve that margin among the remaining ballots.
4:51 PM 6/9/2010 UPDATE: El Dorado just reported that they have about 10,000 ballots left to count. If other relatively small counties have similar high numbers of uncounted ballots, the statewide count is definitely closer to 1.2 million than 900,000.