Thursday results: Prop 11 Holds Lead

On Thursday a number of counties updated their counts, and many more are expected today.

Most of Thursday’s votes were counted in counties where Prop 11 is trailing: Alameda, Kern, and San Francisco, though some came from the Pro-11 counties Amador, El Dorado, Nevada and Sacramento. Counties that earlier were pro-11 remained that way, and counties that earlier were anti-11 remained that way. The net was 82,075 new votes for Prop 11 and 86,551 new votes against (48.7% yes, 51.3% no).

Roughly in line with previous results, 13.5 percent of ballots were blank on the Prop 11 question.

The impact on the overall results is unchanged: Prop 11 continues to lead 50.8 percent Yes to 49.2 percent No. With the latest batch of 194,881 new ballots counted, the Yes on 11 margin declined by 4,476, to 168,151.

Meanwhile the number of uncounted ballots continues to dwindle. Officially, there area 1.8 million ballots left to count, but the timing of the official “uncounted ballot” report trails the “current counts” report. Our analysis shows the real number of remaining ballots to count is about 1.4 million.

Thursday’s data did include a major question mark: On November 11th Alameda County’s report to the Secretary of State said it only had 38,500 ballots left to count. On November 13th, Alameda County reported to the Secretary of State the results of over 100,000 newly-counted ballots. It is not unprecedented to suddenly find over 60,000 new ballots that were missed in the earlier check, but it raises questions.

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