Call it: Prop 11 passes

First, the Wednesday 1pm update numbers: 14,755 new ballots counted from Kings, Merced, and San Louis Obispo Counties. The number blank on Prop 11 remains fairly constant, at 12.6% in this batch. Of those with votes recorded on Prop 11, 50.1 percent were yes, 49.9 percent no.

More significantly, the Secretary of State also issued its first report on uncounted ballots since Monday. There are now 1.8 million ballots left to be counted statewide.

Also, the Rose Institute visited the website of Riverside County and discovered that the County has been updating its own website, but not passing the new counts along to the Secretary of State. The County website reports an extra 72,000 votes on Prop 11, split 40,546 Yes (56%) and 31,612 No (44%).

The Rose Institute is now ready to call this race, based on the following factors:

1) The Yes margin is now up to 161,650 votes (including the extra Riverside votes);

2) There are about 1.75 million ballots left to count, and about 12 percent of them will be blank on Prop 11;

3) To win, Proponents need only 45 percent of the remaining votes on Prop 11;

4) Only 8 counties are 45 percent or less Yes on Prop 11, and there are only 131,280 ballots left to count among those eight;

5) Of the remaining ballots to be counted, 60 percent are from counties that voted Yes on Prop 11;

6) Late-counted ballots are turning out fairly close to ballots cast in that same county on election day: the largest changes came in San Benito County (late ballots made the County only 0.46% less supportive than election-day ballots alone) and in Stanislaus County (late ballots made the County only 0.73% more supportive than election-day ballots alone);

7) The Rose Institute analyzed potential swings in the remaining ballots on a county by county basis, and we found that, to defeat Prop 11, the remaining ballots will have to average 5.75 percent lower support for Prop 11 than each county currently reports;

Our conclusion: the campaign is over, and Proposition 11 has won. 

Congratulations to the proponents and, more importantly, congratulations to the people and communities of California. In their 6th vote on redistricting reform since 1980, California voters have finally approved it, if only for the legislature.