Friday 4:05 pm Update: Prop 11 margin continues to grow slowly

Proposition 11’s margin has grown to 107,299 votes (from 97,321 two days ago).

As of 4:05pm, 66,497 more ballots have been counted. The new ballots split 53.8% yes, 46.2% no. Thirteen percent of the newly-counted ballots were blank on Prop 11. The measure’s overall support remains 50.6%.

It looks like the voters leaving this measure blank (instead of marking “NO” as most undecided voters tend to do) may be the key to its passage.

Perhaps the best news for proponents comes from San Francisco County, which finally reported its “uncounted ballots” number. Only 38,000 ballots remain to be counted in San Francisco County. This is good news for Prop 11 supporters, given the County’s 36% to 64% split against the measure.

The number of uncounted ballots statewide continues to increase as more counties file their reports. Only two small counties (Lake and Trinity) have not yet filed, so we should be near the peak of outstanding ballots number, with 2,734,132 ballots left to count.

If the number of blank ballots remains constant, Prop 11 needs to win 47.8% of the outstanding ballots to pass. Opponents need 52.3% of the ballots to say “NO” to defeat the measure. Those numbers are good for proponents, but remember that LA County is currently 47.1% Yes and 52.9% No, and 615,000 of the remaining ballots are from LA County. This is not over yet.

Sorry, comments are closed for this post.