Fiscal Analysis

The Rose Institute conducts detailed budget analyses for private institutions and corporations in addition to fiscal research on behalf of state, county, city and tribal governments. Our fiscal analysis team works under the direction of Steven B. Frates, Ph.D., a leading expert in fiscal analysis for local government and the primary author of over 20 major fiscal reports issued by the Rose Institute. Dr. Frates is a former member of the California Constitutional Revision Commission
and was appointed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to the California Performance Commission.

Fiscal analysis at the Rose Institute often includes detailed information in the following areas:

• Comprehensive budget analysis
• Fiscal policy ramifications and consequences
• Economic forecasting
• Fiscal sustainability
• Revenue/Expenditure patterns
• Trends of economic growth and decline
• Regional and demographic trends

In 2002, the Rose Institute conducted in-depth analysis of the San Fernando Valley secession and the After School Programs Initiative (Proposition 49). The Institute also examined budgets for school and political districts.

Previous major clients include:

• Los Angeles County
• Orange County (Including all 33 municipal governments)
• Santa Clara County
• Monterey County
• Fresno County
• Riverside County (Including all 24 municipal governments)
• San Diego County and over 75 special districts and redevelopment agencies
• Southern California Edison

Projects

Redlands Fiscal Impact Study
This report analyzed the fiscal impact of an amendment to the General Plan of the city of Redlands. The Institute first examined the fiscal condition of the city of Redlands and then studied the trends of municipal revenue rates and expenditure patterns to determine the overall economic health of the city. The study also compared
the development patterns and finances of Redlands with several neighboring cities. These analyses contextualized
Redlands’ financial and development profile and allowed for a more robust understanding of the economic situation in Redlands. The Rose Institute concluded that the initiative would have a negative impact on Redland’s general operating revenues and would hurt the city’s internal economy.

The Economic Impact of Homelessness in Los Angeles County
In 2005, the Rose Institute examined controller reports, demographic trends, and population dynamics to assess the scope, costs, and effects of social services addressing homelessness in Los Angeles County. The Institute studied homelessness in several LA County cities to create a comparative base for examining the city of Los Angeles. The study found that approximately 14 percent of single homeless adults who remained in Los Angeles were able to gain access to subsidized public housing over an eight-year period. In addition, homeless adults and approximately half of the homeless job seekers who participate in the labor force have viable opportunities for supporting themselves through employment.

City of Loma Linda Fiscal Analysis
The Institute conducted a fiscal impact study for the city of Loma Linda regarding two proposed referenda and one proposed initiative that would amend the General Plan of the city and allow two retail developments to be constructed. The report utilized financial data from several sources, including the Loma Linda Municipal Budget and the Redlands CAFR. The study projected the sales and property tax revenues that would be generated by the proposed projects in addition to costs associated with delaying construction. The projected revenue streams and potential costs from the proposed projects were compared to the standing tax revenue generated in Loma Linda, enabling policy makers to make a fully informed decision regarding the economic proposals.

Riverside New Residential Housing
This Institute study examined the potential impact of a new single family residential housing development on property tax revenues of cities in Riverside County. In order to ensure comparability between cities, the study referred to State Controller Reports which provided uniform definitions and reporting procedures for cities, allowing for a much more precise comparison between municipal revenue and expenditure data. The study first analyzed the property tax revenues and projected revenue growth of each city in the county compared to the increase in tax revenues generated by single family residential housing. The next section compared the increase in property tax revenues generated by new single family residential housing with the property tax revenues generated from other existing sources in each city. The final section examined the correlation between population growth and municipal services. The study concluded that new housing developments had a positive impact for most cities since residents of these new developments paid substantially higher per
capita property taxes than residents in existing neighborhoods.

Fiscal Analysis of the City of Pomona:
The Rose Institute was asked by the city of Pomona to analyze the city’s finances, to comment on the city’s fiscal situation, and to suggest procedures for providing reliable financial information. In addition, the Institute was asked to examine the city in comparison to four neighboring cities. The study addressed the unique aspects of Pomona’s financial circumstances and the importance of reliable municipal fiscal transparency. The Institute devoted particular attention to evaluating the clarity and accessibility of Pomona’s budget documents, other public finance resources, and the use of accurate budget information in facilitating decision-making by city officials. The study emphasized the importance of allowing concerned citizens and the media to have adequate access to fiscal information.

Budget Priorities of the San Diego School Districts:
From 1997 through 2001, the Rose Institute was commissioned by the Girard Foundation to conduct budget analyses of five school districts in San Diego. The Institute compared how each district allocated funds among its major budget items including salaries, benefits, pensions, facilities, materials, and maintenance. Each study also examined unfunded mandates, class sizes, debt issuance, and significant budget changes in each district.

Other major fiscal projects include:

• Los Angeles County Fiscal Study (1996)
• Riverside School Districts (1998-2003)
• Orange County Subventions (2003)
• San Bernardino County Fiscal Analysis (2004)
• City of Long Beach Fiscal Analysis (2006)
• An Analysis of Business Migration in Southern California (2007)