The status of the 2010 Congressional elections in California’s 3rd district (currently represented by Republican Dan Lungren) and 50th district (currently represented by Republican Brian Bilbray) have changed since our post last month about potentially competitive Congressional elections in California in 2010. A Democratic challenger has dropped out of both races.
In Northern California, Democratic businessman Bill Slaton dropped out of the race in the 3rd district. The likely Democratic nominee is now physician Ami Bera because currently there are no other strong Democrats in the race. As we previously noted, Slaton could have made the Democratic primary very competitive because he was self-financing his campaign (he gave himself a $175,000 loan last quarter). A competitive primary would have benefited Lungren because he could have raised and saved money while the two Democrats spent money competing against each other. Bera no longer has a competitive primary and, if no other strong candidate enters the race, can begin focusing on Lungren. Bera raised over $335,000 last fundraising quarter and has more cash on hand than Lungren as of the 3rd quarter fundraising report ($585,700 compared to Lungren’s $443,700). As Politico put it, “Slaton’s withdrawl comes as welcome news to Democrats.”
In Southern California, Solana Beach Councilman and Mayor Dave Roberts decided to drop out of the race for the 50th
district. Roberts dropped out of the race for family reasons, and he did not endorse either Francine Busby or Tracy Emblem, the other two Democrats in the race. He promised to help whoever won the Democratic primary to beat Bilbray in 2010. In our previous post, we described Roberts as “probably the strongest challenger” to Bilbray because he of his postion in the Solana Beach government and his ability to outraise Bilbray. Francine Busby lost to Bilbray in 2006, and Tracy Emblem had less than $30,000 cash on hand as of the 3rd quarter fundraising report (Bilbray had $434,700 cash on hand). Busby and Emblem may still have a competitive primary, but neither candidate is as strong a challenger to Bilbray as Roberts.
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