Pennsylvania Presidential Race Remains Close with Wide Partisan Divide on Confidence in Vote Count
by J. Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. & Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D.
Poll finds roughly equal support for Harris and Trump.
The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains very close in Pennsylvania. In our poll of registered voters, Harris leads Trump 48%-46% with a margin of error of 3.40. About 6% of voters are unsure or support third-party candidates. The poll was designed by the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College (CMC) and implemented by YouGov. It includes 1,062 voters in Pennsylvania as part of a larger national poll.
When Pennsylvania’s undecided or third-party voters are asked whether they lean toward either Harris or Trump, Harris retains her advantage, 50%-47%. If the sample is restricted to likely voters, using likely voter weights, Harris’s advantage is 50%-48% (N=1,043; MoE=3.44). Taking into account not only the usual sampling error but also late-breaking undecided voters and changes in turnout, these results suggest either candidate could win Pennsylvania.
Our data shows Harris is the preferred candidate of younger (18-29) registered voters by 63%-30%; Black registered voters by 89%-8%; and women by 50-43%. Overall, our results, like most others, show a tight race in the Keystone State.
Incumbent Bob Casey (D.) Leads U.S. Senate Race in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Dave McCormick 49%-42%, with the remaining voters either undecided or supporting third-party candidates. First elected to the Senate in 2006, Casey won reelection in 2018 with 56% of the vote. The margin of error for registered voters is 3.40. When the analysis is restricted to likely voters, Casey’s advantage is 50%-42%. (N=1,043, MoE=3.44).
Survey respondents give Casey and Vice President Harris similar levels of support (48%, 49%, respectively), with Trump voters more likely to be undecided in the Senate contest. The strong pull of partisanship in American politics suggests the Senate race may tighten before election day as undecided voters make their final choices.
A majority of Pennsylvania voters believe their ballots will be counted accurately and fairly; however, a wide partisan divide exists regarding confidence in the election.
While overall most Pennsylvania voters (68%) are at least somewhat confident that their votes will be counted fairly and accurately, Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided regarding their confidence in the election.
Only 1% of Democrats are “not at all confident” that their votes will be counted fairly. Nearly two-thirds (65%) are “very confident” in Pennsylvania elections.
By contrast, the majority of Republicans (57%) are either “not at all” confident or “not too” confident that their ballots will be counted fairly and accurately. Few Republicans (9%) are “very” confident.
The Survey
The data for this survey comes from the CMC-Rose Institute Fall 2024 Poll. The survey was designed by the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College (CMC) and implemented online by YouGov between October 7, 2024 and October 17, 2024. The total sample of 1,062 registered voters was collected as part of a larger national survey, including respondents from the national sample and an additional 1,000 voters as a Pennsylvania oversample. The data is weighted by gender, age, race, education, and past presidential vote. YouGov created the “modeled frame” (the target YouGov uses to select respondents for inclusion and to create the survey weights) by using the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and the 2020 presidential vote. The Pennsylvania survey has a margin of error of 3.40 for registered voters. To create a likely voter weight, respondents were screened for vote intention, and the data reweighted; the likely voter sample has a margin of error of 3.44.
The CMC-Rose Institute 2024 Poll is funded by the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College, Claremont McKenna College Faculty Major Grant Award, and Betsy Sinclair, Washington University in St. Louis.
For more information, visit www.roseinstitute.org/2024-poll or contact CMC-Rose Institute Poll Director J. Andrew Sinclair at asinclair@cmc.edu