Who's Gonna Show Up? UPDATED

Dan Walters wonders how many people will turn out tomorrow:

It’s been decades since California played a real role in choosing presidential nominees, at least back to 1972 and perhaps 1968, depending on how one judges such things. And turnouts were much higher then, 72.2 percent in 1968 and 71 percent in 1972. But even in 1976, without much of a contest in either party, turnout was 72.6 percent.The decline in presidential primary voting began in 1980 and has continued ever since.The statistical history of primary voting in California, both presidential and otherwise, back to 1916, is available here.


From Kevin Yamamura’s article on the potential for a record turnout in the Sacramento Bee:

John J. Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said a high Democratic turnout would likely benefit Obama because much of his support has come from first-time and inconsistent voters.”The bigger the Democratic turnout, the better it is for Obama,” Pitney said. “A big turnout would indicate younger voters and people who ordinarily wouldn’t show up are voting, which helps him.”

Dan Walters’ column has more on the potential for record turnout; see also John Wildermuth and Zachary Coile’s article in San Francisco Chronicle, Steve Geissinger’s article in the San Jose Mercury News and John Marelius’s article in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

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