Election Night & Redistricting Recap: Swing to Republicans

Before the elections, the Rose Institute released a preview of what midterm elections mattered for control of redistricting in 2011. As a follow-up to that article, the Rose Institute has created a recap of how both parties did on Tuesday combined with brief analysis on Congressional seats that changed parties on Tuesday. Briefly stated, Republicans dominated races on Tuesday that will control redistricting in 2011 with only a few exceptions (Illinois and Colorado). In some states — North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio — control flipped from “complete Democratic control” to “complete Republican control.” In other states — Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Michigan — Republicans went from having partial control to having complete control.  If congressional redistricting had taken place before the midterms, Democrats would have controlled the redistricting of 128 seats, Republicans 108 seats, 157 seats would have been redistricted under split partisan control, and 35 would have been redistricted with a commission (7 seats are at-large and not redistricted).  However, after the midterm elections those numbers have changed significantly: Republicans will control redistricting of 193 seats, Democrats will control redistricting of only 44 seats, 103 will be redistricting under split partisan control, and 88 will be redistricting by a commission (the major shift for commissions is California).

New York

2011: split partisan control of redistricting, will lose one seat post Census

New York’s election results are still not final, but Republicans look like they will either control or share the Senate. Either way, they will have significantly improved their position for 2011 redistricting. Republicans picked up five (and possibly six) House of Representative seats in New York. One or more of those seats are expected to be targeted by Democrats for elimination in redistricting, as New York will likely lose at least one Congressional seat after the Census.

Georgia

2011: complete Republican control, will gain one seat post Census

Republican Nathan Deal beat former Democratic Governor Roy Barnes to give Republicans complete control of the entire process. Republican Austin Scott beat Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall, meaning that Republicans will be redrawing that district to protect Scott rather than defeat Marshall. At the same time, Democratic Congressman Sanford Bishop narrowly won reelection, and Republicans may try to redraw the lines to improve their chances of winning his seat in 2012.

Alabama

2011: complete Republican control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Republicans won both branches of the legislature and held onto the Governor’s mansion. Republican Martha Roby defeated Democratic Congressman Bobby Bright leaving only one Democratic congressional seat in the state (there were three after 2008). Republicans will likely redraw districts to solidify these newly-elected Republican members for the next ten years.

Ohio

2011: Complete Republican control, will lose two seats post Census

Tuesday was a horrible night for Ohio Democrats. Republicans now control all aspects of the redistricting process as they have both branches of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion. Additionally, five Democratic members of Congress lost reelection. Ohio will lose one or two seats after the Census; fortunately for Democrats at this point, Republicans may have to combine at least two Republican districts during redistricting, as there may not be enough Democratic members available to eliminate.

Kentucky

2011: split partisan control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Democrats did not take control of the Senate, and redistricting control will be split between the two parties. While results have not been finalized yet, Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler seems to have won reelection, so no Congressional seats changed in the midterms.

Tennessee

2011: complete Republican control, will not gain or lose seats post Census

Republicans maintained control of the House and Senate and won the Governor’s mansion, giving them complete control over 2011 redistricting. Republicans took three Democratic seats in Congress and now control seven out of nine seats. Steve Cohen’s Memphis seat is safe, but Republicans may try to redraw the state to flip Jim Cooper’s seat, along with aiming to secure their new incumbents for the next decade.

Pennsylvania

2011: complete Republican control, will lose one seat post Census

Republicans won the Governor’s mansion and took control of the House, giving the party complete control of the 2011 redistricting process. Pennsylvania Democrats also lost five seats in Congress and almost lost two more. Republicans now have five more incumbents to protect as well as several districts they may try to redraw and capture in 2012.

Texas

2011: complete Republican control, will gain four seats post Census

Republicans dominated in Texas, and Democrats did not take over the House. Texas will be gaining three or four seats after the Census, and Republicans will have complete control over the process. Additionally, Republicans won two Democratic seats in Congress (and likely a third). Texas Republicans will likely be able to add several new Republican seats to the state after 2011 redistricting.

Colorado

2011: split partisan control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Democrats did well in Colorado compared to other states. Democrats maintained control of the Governor’s mansion and the Senate, though they lost the House. Democrats lost two seats in Congress but will likely try to reclaim them when the lines are redrawn during redistricting, while State House Republicans will try to protect them.

Indiana

2011: complete Republican control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Republicans won control of the Indiana House and now control the entire redistricting process. Indiana Republicans now have two additional seats to defend because they won two Democratically held seats in Congress (and almost took a third one).

Nevada

2011: split partisan control, will gain one seat post Census

Republicans did not take control of the Senate but did maintain control of the Governor’s mansion. Control of redistricting will be split between the Republican Governor (Brian Sandoval) and the Democratic legislature. Republicans did defeat Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus and now control two out of three House seats in Nevada.

Illinois

2011: complete Democratic control, will lose one seat post Census

Democratic Governor Pat Quinn barely beat Republican Bill Brady, and Democrats will maintained control over the entire redistricting process. However, Republicans won three (and possibly four) Democratic seats in Congress. Illinois will likely lose a seat in Congress because of the Census, and Democrats will likely try to both eliminate one of the new Republican incumbents and improve their chances at retaking the seats they lost this year.

Michigan

2011: complete Republican control, will lose one seat post Census

Republicans took control of the Governor’s mansion, the Michigan House, and two formerly Democratic seats in Congress (almost three). Republicans now control the entire 2011 redistricting process. Michigan will likely lose a seat because of the Census, and Republicans will likely try to redraw the lines in a way to eliminate one of the remaining Democrats Congressional seats in Michigan.

New Hampshire

2011: split partisan control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Republicans won both branches of the legislature, but Democratic Governor John Lynch won reelection. Republicans won both of New Hampshire’s Congressional seats. Control of 2011 redistricting will be split between the Republican legislature and the Democratic Governor.

Wisconsin

2011: complete Republican control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Republicans won both branches of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion. They will control the entire 2011 redistricting process in Wisconsin. Republicans also won two Democratic Congressional seats and were competitive in a third race that would have defeated a Democratic incumbent (Ron Kind).

North Carolina

2011: complete Republican control, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Republicans took control of both branches of the legislature, and in North Carolina the legislature controls the entire redistricting process (the Governor does not have a veto). So Republicans control the entire process. While Republicans only defeated one Democratic incumbent in Congress (and that seat was considered a surprise), there were three other competitive races in Democratic districts that Republicans will likely try to redraw to be even more competitive in 2012.

Minnesota

2011: partisan control not yet known, will lose one seat post Census

The results of the Minnesota Governor’s race are not final yet and no winner has been declared, but Democrat Mark Dayton appears to be in the lead as the election heads toward a recount. Republicans won control of both branches of the legislature and defeated a Democratic incumbent in Congress (Jim Oberstar). If Dayton holds on to win the governorship, control of redistricting will remain split. Minnesota will likely lose a seat after the Census, and if Dayton wins the two parties will likely have to compromise on how they draw the districts.

California

2011: redistricting controlled by commission, will not gain/lose seats post Census

Democrats would have controlled redistricting because they control both branches of the legislature and took the Governor’s mansion.  However, Proposition 20 passed (and Proposition 27 failed) meaning that a redistricting commission will now control both congressional and legislative redistricting in 2011.

Leave a reply