Frost on Redistricting 2011: “The Ultimate Political Contest”

An op-ed by former Democratic Congressman Martin Frost on the FOX News website says:

Every so often an important political issue flies “under the radar screen.”

In other words, it’s not considered important enough for the national press to spend any time covering it. A perfect example is the next round of redistricting scheduled for 2011.

This is the ultimate political contest, with all the chips on the table. And the contest is already in progress, the national press notwithstanding.

Indeed. Frost lays out what states and parties stand to lose and gain:

The real redistricting battles will occur in states that are slated to gain or lose seats as a result of the 2010 census because some changes will have to occur in current Congressional delegations in those states. States projected to lose seats after the 2010 census are New York (-2), Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1). Michigan (-1), Missouri (-1) and Pennsylvania (-1).

States projected to gain seats after the 2010 census include Texas (+3), Arizona (+2), Florida (+2), California (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1) and Utah (+1).

You will notice a trend. The states projected to lose seats are generally in the Rust Belt and have quite a few Democratic Congressmen. The states projected to gain seats are primarily in the Sun Belt and are states that have been trending Republican in recent elections.

True enough, although as Frost indicates redistricting battles will determine how much this trend helps or hurts either party. See some our previous posts:

House Seats & the 2010 Census: Who Wins, Who Loses?

Ohio: Census 2010 & Reapportionment

Fastest & Slowest Growing House Districts.

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